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Follow A Collection of Reviews By Ethan Brundeen on WordPress.com

The time has come once again for my second favorite holiday: Oscar Sunday. I live for this. I’ve worked really hard on this list, but, keep in mind this is just my opinion. All of these picks are from my own brain, and to be honest, I have no idea how credible it is. For each category, I have offered three picks. I’ve supplied you with who I think will win, who should win, and who has an outside chance of being a dark horse in the race. For the full list of nominees visit this website:¬†oscars.go.comoscar shape 1

Best Picture

Who Will Win

The Shape of Water

Who Should Win

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Who Has An Outside Chance

Get Out

Best Picture, as always, is the most contested race. Three Billboards has won at nearly every major award show, but as time wears on, more and more (in my opinion) nonsensical backlash has built up against the film. The Shape of Water was nominated for more awards than any other film which is usually a tell that it’s going to win overall. But, I would not be legitimately surprised if Get Out snuck in there for the win. But at any rate, I love all of these films and any of them would be worthy of the award.

toro

Best Director

Who Will Win

Guillermo DelToro

Who Should Win

Guillermo DelToro

Who Has An Outside Chance

Christopher Nolan

This award is essentially a lock. Even though Guillermo DelToro is still relatively young, this is his year for a career award. And it’s well deserved, he definitely delivered the best work from the chair this year for his opus: The Shape of Water

frances

Best Actress In A Leading Role

Will Win

Frances McDormand

Should Win

Frances McDormand

Outside Chance

Sally Hawkins

I would honestly be shocked if Frances didn’t win this award. Sally Hawkins delivered a beautiful performance in The Shape of Water but as far as I’m concerned no one deserves this more than Frances McDormand for her work in Three Billboards.

gary

Best Actor In A Leading Role

Will Win

Gary Oldman

Should Win

Gary Oldman

Outside Chance

Timothee Chalamet

Another career award, this time for the legend that is Gary Oldman for his transformative performance in the otherwise traditional Darkest Hour. There is no award this year that is more of a lock than Darkest Hour.

laurie

Best Actress In A Supporting Role

Will Win

Laurie Metcalf

Should Win

Laurie Metcalf

Outside Chance

Allison Janney

This is probably my most controversial pick, as most people are predicting Allison Janney to win this award for her work in I, Tonya. BUT I think they’re underestimating just how incredible Laurie Metcalf’s performance was. Lady Bird was pretty much beloved by all and, seeing how this is its only real shot at taking the stage, I believe that Laurie Metcalf will be taking this one. We’ll see.

sam

Best Actor In A Supporting Role

Will Win

Sam Rockwell

Should Win

Sam Rockwell

Outside Chance

Willem Dafoe

Yes, there is a lot of misguided backlash against Sam Rockwell’s performace on Twitter. But, none of this is coming from voting members of the Academy. In my opinion, Sam Rockwell delivered the best male performance last year and there is no way he doesn’t get this award.

get out

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win

Get Out

Should Win

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Outside Chance

Lady Bird

This award is either going to Lady Bird or Get Out. Both were written by first-time writer/directors who are both not old white men. But, as I’ve said before, there was no movie made last year that will prove to be more culturally significant than Get Out. This is it and Jordan Peele’s moment to shine. You can expect to see him on that stage.

call me

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win

Call Me By Your Name

Should Win

Call Me By Your Name

Outside Chance

Mudbound

The absolutely beautiful script for Call Me By Your Name, an intimate film about a seventeen year old boy, was penned by a man no less than 89 years old. There is absolutely no way this award isn’t going to this film. Nothing else in this category even comes close to touching it. No matter what fanboys might try to tell you, there is zero way this is going to Logan.

coco

Best Animated Feature

Will Win

Coco

Should Win

Loving Vincent

Outside Chance

Loving Vincent

Honestly, Best Animated categories might as well be called “The Disney/Pixar Award,” it is very rare that any other studio wins and this year will be no different. For those of you who don’t know, Loving Vincent was a beautiful animated film in which every frame was handpainted over a series of years. It’s a living, breathing work of art, but, nobody saw it. This award goes to Coco. Which is fine.

woman

Best Foreign Language Film

Will Win

A Fantastic Woman

Should Win

The Square

Outside Chance

The Insult

Foreign Language films are impossible to predict but, even though I loved the mood of The Square, I’m predicting this award will go to A Fantastic Woman because the lead is a major transgender actress. Who knows really, but we’ll see.

faces places

Best Documentary

Will Win

Faces/Places

Should Win

Faces/Places

Outside Chance

Last Men In Aleppo

I’ll be honest, Faces/Places was the only one of the nominees that I saw, but it’s the one people have been talking about the most. This award, like the foreign language films, is essentially a crapshoot. This could go to anyone.

phantom

Best Original Score

Will Win

Phantom Thread

Should Win

Phantom Thread

Outside Chance

The Shape of Water

Johnny Greenwood has had a long, storied career in Hollywood as a composer. But then again, so has every composer up for this award. This is a bit of a personal choice since I found Greenwood’s score on Phantom Thread to be the most imaginative, and while I think the academy shares the same sentiment, who knows? Music is the most subjective form of art there is, after all.

coco 2

Best Original Song

Will Win

“Remember Me” from Coco

Should Win

“Mystery of Love” from Call Me By Your Name

Outside Chance

“Mystery of Love” from Call Me By Your Name

Another award that’s going to Coco just because it has to. I’m alright with this one, because the Remember Me scene is the most beautiful scene in the film but, in my opinion, Sufjan Stevens’ Mystery of Love is a better song.

dunkirk

Best Sound Editing

Will Win

Dunkirk

Should Win

Blade Runner: 2049

Outside Chance

Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Now we get into the technical awards which are The Academy’s chance to give statues to the most popular films of the previous year. This award could evenly go to Dunkirk, Blade Runner, or Star Wars, but, while I thought Blade Runner had the most insane sound I’ve ever heard, the Academy really,¬†really, likes to give this award to war movies.

baby

Best Sound Mixing

Will Win

Baby Driver

Should Win

Baby Driver

Outside Chance

Dunkirk

I love Baby Driver.

shape 2

Best Production Design

Will Win

The Shape of Water

Should Win

The Shape of Water

Outside Chance

Dunkirk

I would be genuinely baffled if this award went to anyone other than The Shape of Water. Sure, Dunkirk used real WWII planes, but The Shape of Water was absolutely¬†gorgeous. I’m sure there are already coffee table books out titled “The Art of The Shape of Water…”

bladerunner

Best Cinematography

Will Win

Blade Runner 2049

Should Win

Blade Runner 2049

Outside Chance

Mudbound

This is another lock. Roger Deakins is the closest thing the cinematography world has to a celebrity and his work on Blade Runner 2049 may be his best yet. Plus, the guy has never won an Oscar so…Career Award, anyone?

darkest hour 2

Best Make-up and Hairstyling

Will Win

Darkest Hour

Should Win

Darkest Hour

Outside Chance

Wonder

There is absolutely no way this doesn’t go to The Darkest Hour.

thread

Best Costuming

Will Win

Phantom Thread

Should Win

Phantom Thread

Outside Chance

The Shape of Water

I mean, come on. IT’S A PAUL THOMAS ANDERSON FILM ABOUT DRESSES.

dunkirk 2

Best Film Editing

Will Win

Dunkirk

Should Win

Baby Driver

Outside Chance

The Shape of Water

Another award that the academy loves to give to war films.

apes

Best Visual Effects

Will Win

War For The Planet Of The Apes

Should Win

War For The Planet Of The Apes

Outside Chance

Blade Runner 2049

This category is really hard for me. Because, I have gone on record saying that the CGI in Blade Runner 2049 is the best I’ve ever seen. I mean, nothing in that film looks fake. But this is the final in a trilogy of apes films that have been monumental in advancing the art of motion capture. The time has come for Planet of the Apes to win.

heroin(e)

Best Documentary Short

Will Win

Heroin(e)

Should Win

Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

Outside Chance

Traffic Stop

I watched Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 for the title. I watched Heroin(e) because it’s on Netflix. Everyone in the academy has Netflix. It’s winning.

dekalb

Best Live-Action Short

Will Win

DeKalb Elementary

Should Win

DeKalb Elementary

Outside Chance

The Silent Child

Let’s be real for a second. Oscar voting opened less than a week after the Parkland Shooting and DeKalb Elementary is a short film about a School Shooting. This film is going to win two awards. One for Live-Action Short. And another for most political speech of the night.

basketball

Best Animated Short

Will Win

Dear Basketball

Should Win

Dear Basketball

Outside Chance

Lou

This is honestly a protest vote. Lou is Pixar’s short. It’s cute. It’s going to win. But Dear Basketball was so beautiful so…screw Pixar.

 

-Ethan Brundeen

 

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